Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández
DEPS, USiena
Abstract
Dávila-Fernández and Sordi (2018) have recently extended Goodwin's (1967) model to study the interaction between distributive cycles and international trade for economies in which growth is Balance-of-Payments Constrained. This paper examines the implications of adopting (i) Kaldor-Verdoorn's law, and (ii) classical-Marxian technical change to the main results of the model. The Kaldorian specication leaves the system with no internal equilibrium solution while the Marxian specification makes it stable. A Hopf bifurcation analysis shows that the combination of both formulations might give rise to persistent and bounded cyclical fluctuations. Given the lack in the literature of reliable estimates for the classical-Marxian case, we provide a panel-VAR estimation for a sample of 16 OECD countries between 1980-2012 that gives some support to its central argument. Our estimates were used to calibrate the models developed in the rst part of the paper.
Keywords
Growth cycle, Goodwin, Thirlwall's law, Distributive cycles, Hopf bifurcation, Technical change.
Jel Codes
E12; E32; O40
