Working Paper n.849 - Gennaio 2021
Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández
DEPS, USiena
Serena Sordi
DEPS, USiena
Abstract
This article develops a small-scale agent-based model to investigate the interplay between heterogeneous agents, institutions and technological change. By acknowledging the concept of behavioural dispositions, we di¤erentiate between changers, neutrals, and deniers. Our research question is further motivated using data from the last two waves of the World Values Survey. The composition of the population is endogenously determined taking into account that reasoning is context-dependent. As we increase the degree of interaction between agents, a bi-modal distribution with two different basins of attraction emerges: one around an equilibrium with the majority of the population supporting innovative change, and another with most agents being suspicious of innovation. Neutral agents play an important role as an element of resilience. Conditional on their share in equilibrium, an increase in the response of the respective probability functions to growth results in a super-critical Hopf-bifurcation, followed by the emergence of persistent fluctuations. Numerical experiments on the basin of attraction also reveal the birth of a periodic hidden attractor. The long-run cycles we obtain indicate that economies are more likely to be path-dependent than what conventional approaches usually admit. As the productive structure evolves, the institutional framework is transformed and reinforces technological change in a cumulative way.
Jel Codes
O11, O33, P11
