934. R&D Government Spending and Regional Structural Dynamics: Sectoral Heterogeneity in Europe

Working Paper n.934 - Novembre 2025

Giovanna Ciaffi

e-Campus University, Department of Human and Social Sciences (DiSUS).

Matteo Deleidi

University of Bari “Aldo Moro”, Department of Political Sciences.

Antonino Lofaro

University of Bari “Aldo Moro”, Department of Political Sciences.

Abstract

This paper evaluates the impact of Mission–Oriented Innovation Policies (MOIPs) and public R&D investment by quantifying the responses of GDP, private investment, hours worked, labour productivity, and the real hourly wage. We combine a Bartik–type identification strategy with the Local Projections method on a novel dataset with a sectoral–regional dimension, covering 333 European NUTS–2 regions over 1995–2019. Results show that R&D government spending exerts robust and persistent expansionary effects, crowding in private investment, raising employment, and boosting productivity. Sectoral heterogeneity emerges, with high multiplicative effects in construction and finance, while employment effects are concentrated in construction and market services.

Keywords

Fiscal policy; Mission-Oriented Innovation Policies; R&D government spending; Sectoral heterogeneity; Regional economics; Local Projections; European regions.

Jel Codes

R11; E62; H50; O38